The Marvel Cinematic Box Office (Today)

[Nick]

I decided to make this its own thread, since I went really overboard in my reply to one of @Jake's posts (mostly because I wasn't sure myself of how Marvel was doing and wanted to do a little research).

For context, this is my reply to the assertion Marvel is starting to lose momentum at the box office.

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The last phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is difficult to breakdown and analyze because all the variables you have to consider in-order to fully represent the data shown.

The Covid-19 outbreak had a lot of negative effect on the box-office that we still haven't recovered from - especially not in foreign marketplaces. For that reason, I don't believe we can use either Shang-Chi, Black Widow, or The Eternals in any proper analysis of the state of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. They were all released at a volatile time where every film released suffered.

That leaves us with:

• Spider-Man: No Way Home
• Thor: Love and Thunder
• Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
• Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Spider-Man: No Way Home I consider an outlier, so to speak. The film had Tobey Maguire's Spider-Man and Andrew Garfield's Spider-Man involved, and I would consider it an "event" film. It was catching lightning in a bottle, benefited by so many different variables (the right moment, as well as pent-up demand for a major film release). Although it will be tested with a sequel, I call it an outlier because I don't think they'll be able to do it again. I believe the next Spider-Man will be a major moneymaker and it will continue, but I don't see the next film reaching the dizzying heights that No Way Home did.

Thor: Love and Thunder was a success for Marvel. Every Thor film has improved on itself at the box-office at a domestic level. The Dark World made more than Thor, Ragnarok made more than Dark World, and now, Love and Thunder has made more than Ragnarok. Love and Thunder made nearly 30 million more than Ragnarok in the United States.

The film made nearly 100 million less worldwide than Ragnarok, however.

This is because Thor: Love and Thunder was not released in China, where Ragnarok made 112 million.

Thus, I would consider Thor: Love and Thunder a stalemate between itself and Ragnarok and a stalemate to the hypothesis that Marvel is losing momentum - adjusted for inflation, they made almost exactly the same amount in the United States.

For anyone who's curious, I liked Ragnarok more than Love and Thunder.

Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness is not a stalemate to the hypothesis, but a tally in the win column for Marvel. The film made nearly 300 million more than the original film and was amongst the most successful films the Marvel Cinematic Universe has ever seen for a standalone character film. One can argue that it piggybacked off the success of Spider-Man: No Way Home, but the Marvel Cinematic Universe has always piggybacked off its predecessors (the same way Iron Man 3 was largely carried by the success of the original Avengers film).

For anyone who's curious, I liked Doctor Strange 1 more than Doctor Strange 2.

With that, we are left with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.

Black Panther in itself is something of an outlier as well. The same way Spider-Man was destined to reach unseen, unheard of success, Black Panther 2 was always doomed to not live up to its predecessor.

The original film was special. Anybody who stares at box-office data all day like I do can attest to that.

We can chalk it off to whatever we want, but the fact is, Black Panther made more domestically than three of the four Avengers movies.

The sequel made 455 million in the United States and did so without the Black Panther. That isn't a representation of Marvel's declining success, but a sign of how weighty the brand actually is.

At 858 million, Black Panther 2 made nearly 500 million less than the original film. That isn't enough to call it a misfire or to make any outright proclamation, other than - Black Panther 2 sure would've made more money if Chadwick was still alive for it.

The film wasn't released in China either (which accounted for 100 million of the original's total), but most of its decline was on a domestic level (the same level that no other Marvel movies has shown any decreases on), which shows, pointedly, that Black Panther 2 didn't have the momentum the original film had.

Lastly, we have Ant-Man 3.

Thus far, this film's biggest crime is falling victim to the fanboy-effect (i.e. a front-loaded box office outcome).

The issue is that Ant-Man has never been a popular franchise for the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

The first film is nearly at the very bottom of the heap, sitting someplace with the early day Marvel movies, like The Incredible Hulk and the original Thor film. The sequel Ant-Man & the Wasp did a little bit better than that. It crossed the 200 million threshold in the United States.

A decent symmetry can be drawn to the first two Thor movies and Ant-Man movies.

Ant-Man made 180 million domestically and 519 worldwide and Thor made 181 domestically and 440 worldwide. Meanwhile, Ant-Man 2 made 216 million domestically and 622 million worldwide and Thor 2 made 206 million domestically and 644 million worldwide.

The third film Quantumania has dropped like a rock at the domestic box-office (69% after its second weekend - it didn't lose to Cocaine Bear at any weekend though), however, you can't tell the whole story without acknowledging that it opened to 106 million compared to Ant-Man's 57 million and The Wasp's 75 million.

By the end of its run, Ant-Man 3 will be the most successful Ant-Man film at the domestic box office. By the end of its worldwide run, it will likely end up someplace over what the original Ant-Man grossed and about what the second film did worldwide.

In summation, the box office data does not support the belief that the Marvel Cinematic Universe is losing momentum (yet).

Instead, it shows a lack of Chinese (Black Panther 2 didn't receive one, Spider-Man didn't, Doctor Strange didn't, Thor didn't. Ant-Man did.) markets, and supports the belief that Ant-Man simply isn't that popular of a character.

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[Tramuson]

Long story short, Disney is continuing to make bank. I wonder how Black Widow, The Eternals, and Shang-Chi would have fared had Covid-19 not sent them direct-to-streaming. Do you think they would have been a knock against them or furthered their win-streak?

 

[Nick]

Long story short, Disney is continuing to make bank. I wonder how Black Widow, The Eternals, and Shang-Chi would have fared had Covid-19 not sent them direct-to-streaming. Do you think they would have been a knock against them or furthered their win-streak?

I remember when Black Widow was first releases, Scarlett had a lawsuit filed against Disney about how the film was released. The estimate thrown around by her and company was outrageously optimistic. In my opinion, the Black Widow film never had a chance to reach anywhere close to one billion worldwide.

Instead, I believe it would have made somewhere in the 750-800 million range, and that'd largely have been bolstered by the synergistic impact of being post-Endgame and not because the popularity of the Black Widow character herself (in normal circumstances, as in, without receiving an Avengers bump, I think her character and a solo film would perform about the same as what Ant-Man & the Wasp did - a middling 600-650 million fare).

I don't think The Eternals would have fared too, too well either, to be honest. Already, that film has largely been forgotten (although they may build momentum with a sequel). I believe it would have likely made about 600 million under normal circumstances, especially given its middling reception.

Shang-Chi, I believe, could have been a major hit though. The reviews were enthusiastic and, although I don't think it'd exactly be Black Panther, I could have seen it ending up as high as 850 million.

 

[Hattrick]

In other words, it appears as though Marvel is sustaining the status-quo, and, aside from outliers like Spider-Man: No Way Home, isn't really shaking things up in a major fashion.

Good for them, if the next handful of Marvel movies do well, but the real test will be when they make their best shot at an Avengers caliber "event" film.

Something else to factor in is inflation, which means that if Marvel movies are making the same amount of money five years from now, they're actually making less money than they made five years ago.

 

[Nick]

In other words, it appears as though Marvel is sustaining the status-quo, and, aside from outliers like Spider-Man: No Way Home, isn't really shaking things up in a major fashion.

Good for them, if the next handful of Marvel movies do well, but the real test will be when they make their best shot at an Avengers caliber "event" film.

Something else to factor in is inflation, which means that if Marvel movies are making the same amount of money five years from now, they're actually making less money than they made five years ago.

The improved domestic box office for Thor: Love & Thunder compared to Thor: Ragnarok can largely be attributed to inflation. If Thor 4 would have received a Chinese release, I believe they would be a clear stalemate with each other, adjusted for inflation.

Whereas, with Ant-Man 3, it looks like it will be slightly less successful than Ant-Man 2 and the original Ant-Man, if inflation is factored in.

However, Doctor Strange 2 did build on the success of the first Doctor Strange film (and the momentum from Spider-Man: No Way Home).

Thus, with those three films, the information doesn't support either (a.) that Marvel is losing momentum, (b.) that Marvel is gaining momentum), or (c.) that Marvel is maintaining the status quo.

If we factored in Spider-Man: No Way Home, that'd suggest Marvel is gaining momentum (but that's under special circumstances), but, if we factored in Black Panther 2, that'd suggest Marvel is losing momentum (but that's under special circumstances).

The next three Marvel films will offer new data to speculate on.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 should make bank. I have no doubt it will be able to land the 800 million the last film did, and maybe even fall someplace just shy of a billion (I am thinking 900-950 million is likely, similar to Doctor Strange 2).

After that though, as it is the last Guardians film, what happens next?

I would argue that The Marvels in November and Captain America: New World Order next year are more important. The Marvels will see if the new crop of main-characters can keep the torch lit, and New World Order will answer whether audiences will accept Falcon as the new Captain America, or if they will think of it as a minor "spin-off" film franchise almost.